2014 State and National General Election Summary

The 114th U.S. Congress started earlier this month following a wild 2014 midterm election. The following websites capture those 2014 election results in various formats and perspectives:

2014 Election results by Congressional District (Courtesy of the New York Times).

2014 Election results by Congressional District (Courtesy of the New York Times).

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MS Gulf Coast’s 2014 General Election Results

Mississippians voted overwhelmingly to support a state constitutional amendment to preserve the right to hunt and fish.  Nearly 90% of voters approved House Concurrent Resolution 30 (HCR 30) which will amend the state constitution and become the 18th state with hunting and fishing protected as a constitutional right.

Winners in the 2014 General Election:

  • U.S. Senate:  Thad Cochran
  • 4th Congressional District:  Steven Palazzo
  • Chancery Court Judge, District 08, Place 2:  Jennifer Schloegel
  • Chancery Court Judge, District 08, Place 3:  Sandy Steckler
  • County Court Judge, Place 3:  Margaret Alfonso
  • Chancery Court Judge, District 16, Place 1:  D. Neil Harris, Sr.*
  • Chancery Court Judge, District 16, Place 3:  Michael Fondren

*As of November 7th, D. Neil Harris, Sr. led the election against Paula Yancey by 18 votes with 18 affidavit ballots outstanding.

Two races will require a run-off.  In the Harrison County race for Circuit Court Judge (District 02, Place 2), Chris Schmidt earned 42% of the vote and will face Robert Fant Walker who received the second highest vote total with 34%.  In Jackson County, Mike Ezell garnered 43.9% of the vote and will face Scott McIlrath who came in second with 15.9%.

Runoff election will be November 25th.

For more information:

Review of the Republican runoff

On Tuesday, June 24th, Senator Thad Cochran won the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate seat he currently occupies.  The nastiest and craziest primary in recent memory apparently deserves an equally crazy ending.  While lobbyist Stuart Stevens wrote that the formula for victory was very simple, a look back at the results is fascinating.  The Stennis Institute remarked, “[T]he turnout for the runoff election exceeded the primary turnout by 20%, which is an astonishing fact.”

National Review echoed the thought with a similar assessment:  “It’s generally agreed that Thad Cochran squeaked out a win in Mississippi last night in part by getting Democrats, especially African Americans, to turn out.”  Harry Enten of FiveThirtyEight completed the exhaustive (and fascinating) data-mining showing how Cochran’s victory correlated to black turn-out and later reported that a Cochran victory was not as implausible as pundits initially predicted.

Mississippi State’s Stennis Institute produced numerous post-runoff maps including the one below.  The colors show the vote difference between the primary and runoff for each county while the elevation shows the voter turnout.

Vote Difference from June 3rd

Change in raw vote numbers from June 3rd primary to the June 24th runoff

Turnout in DeSoto County increased in support of challenger Chris McDaniel but was overshadowed by the dramatic increase in Hinds County in support of Cochran.  The author counted 6 counties that shifted from one candidate to the other but the most significant was in Jackson County which netted more than 700 more votes for Cochran.

Runoff Results by County

However, even in counties held by McDaniel, the change in margin of victory greatly favored Cochran who received a net increase in votes in 48 of the 82 Mississippi counties.  The Stennis Institute’s full analysis with even more maps is provided in “Mississippi Primary Runoff Election, 2014.”

But how did Cochran expand the voter pool to increase turnout and win the Republican nomination?  The days following the election have shown that defining your opponent is critical to energizing potential voters.  Negative and misleading attacks are expected from those across the aisle, but Cochran used the tactic effectively against a member of his own party.  Consider this flyer that was found in traditionally Democrat precincts and posted by National Review:

GOTV Flyer for Thad Cochran

Courtesy of National Review

Like the flyer above, a “robocall” in support of Cochran stated similar positions and even implied that Cochran would not block President Obama’s agenda, a significant point that McDaniel expected would increase his support in the reputedly “deep red” state of Mississippi:

If that wasn’t enough, listen to this clip posted by Breitbart and reportedly aired on WMGO radio warning voters that the Tea Party will take away food stamps and “everything we and our families depend on that comes from Washington will be cut”:

Tea Party Republicans are shocked at the Cochran campaign’s attempt to disparage a fellow Republican Party member.  The election results and campaign tactics demonstrate the divide between establishment and Tea Party Republicans and will likely shape both the ethic and ideology of future campaigns, especially when facing an ideological purist from within one’s own party.

Cochran friend, classmate, and Ole Miss professor Curtis Wilkie, defending Cochran’s campaign in The Last Southern Gentleman, wrote on the day of the runoff, “In a rare sight for a Republican, Thad is openly seeking help in the predominantly black Mississippi Delta in the closing hours of the campaign.”  Bolstering one of McDaniel’s assertions during the campaign that Cochran has never led a conservative fight, Wilkie recalls that “He specialized in agriculture and appropriations and rarely engaged in discussions about heated ‘wedge issues’ such as abortion rights and gun control.”

A week after the election, McDaniel has yet to concede, at least in part, due to reports of voting irregularities which include a 50% increase in voter turn-out in Hinds County.  A June 25th Fox News report summarized:

Of particular interest to the McDaniel campaign was the turnout in Hinds County, which Cochran won by nearly 11,000 votes Tuesday. By contrast, Cochran won the county by 5,300 votes on June 3. Just under 25,000 total ballots were cast in Hinds County Tuesday, while 16,640 total ballots were cast on June 3.

On Fox New Channel’s “Hannity,” McDaniel stated that he intends to verify the number that voted in the June 3rd Democrat primary and illegally voted in the Republican runoff.

For more information:

Runoff election rundown

With Political Action Committees backing both sides, watch-out for misinformation and half-truths as advertisements and the media heat-up for the June 24th runoff election between Sen. Thad Cochran and state Sen. Chris McDaniel.

With McDaniel winning more of the June 3rd vote, the establishment backing Cochran is looking for some help from Democrats who sat out the June 3rd Primary.  What seemed absurd two weeks ago may have helped Cochran’s momentum.  Even gun-control advocate Michael Bloomberg gave $250,000 to Mississippi Conservatives PAC, the primary super PAC supporting Cochran’s reelection.

The polling data only fuels the debate.  One poll shows McDaniel with a 8-point lead.  Two days later, another shows a dead heat only to be refuted by second poll the same day saying McDaniel has a 12-point lead.

One opinion says Ingalls has shrunk during Cochran’s tenure while another says Cochran must remain our senator if the next ship is going to be funded.  All the while, McDaniel is under fire for wanting to shrink the federal government.

The big winners?  Newspapers and Democrat nominee Travis Childers!

For more information:

Political Junkies Only: Detailed 2014 Primary Election Results

U.S. Senate primary results by county (courtesy of the New York Times)

U.S. Senate primary results by county (courtesy of the New York Times).  Click to enlarge.

The New York Times graphic to the left shows the county-by-county split in Mississippi’s June 3rd Republican Primary election for the U.S. Senate.

For more in-depth statistical analysis, see the Washington Post website which provides interactive color-coded maps by vote percentage and vote margin in each county.

Philip Bump reports, “In 23 of the 82 counties in Mississippi, 28 percent of them, McDaniel and Cochran were within 100 votes of each other.  Some of the counties are small, so 100 votes don’t mean as much. But some are not. And if you extend the margin to 250 votes, you’re talking about 45 of the 82 counties, more than half.”

For more information:

Democrat Primary U.S. Senate Candidate: Travis Childers

Former Rep. Travis Childers is the leading candidate for the Democrat nomination for U.S. Senate in Mississippi.  Winning the 2008 Election for Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District, Childers lost his re-election bid after 1 term to Alan Nunnelee.  Despite that, the potentially demanding Republican Primary could improve his opportunities in the deeply Republican state.

By all accounts a conservative Democrat, Childers his voting record appears to support that.  He voted to censure Rep. Charles Rangel (D) in 2010, to establish a timeline for withdrawal from Afghanistan, and against the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.  Childers affirms a solid record of working across party lines and insists he will put Mississippi’s middle class first.

In any event Childers has an uphill battle.  In 2008, the last time a Democrat vied for a Mississippi Senate seat, former governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) fell to Sen. Roger Wicker (R) by 10 points.  No official campaign website or other listing of positions is currently available.  This post will be updated if either becomes known.

With a history in Mississippi Politics, below is some of the internet chatter available about Childers:

Don’t tell the GOP establishment: Mississippi is a “welfare state”

Based on a WalletHub study, Mississippi is the state most dependent upon federal funding and brings in $3.07 of federal funds for every $1 in taxes sent to Washington, DC.  Per the Tax Foundation, federal funding accounts for 45.8% of Mississippi’s revenue.

Although Mississippi is considered a “Red State,” or politically conservative, it ranks among the highest in federal dollars received per tax dollar paid.  With a political ideology that decries government hand-outs, Mississippi is “having its cake and eating it too.”

Influential leadership in Congress over the last 60 years has contributed to Mississippi’s current fiscal situation.  Sen. John C. Stennis (D) chaired the Senate Armed Services Committee from 1969-1981 and the Senate Appropriations Committee from 1987-1989.  Former Sen. Trent Lott, even though a Republican, continued that legacy started by Stennis and rose to Senate Majority Leader before his resignation in 2007.  Likewise, Sen. Thad Cochran (R) has also done much to bring federal funds into the state and, if re-elected to a 7th term, is in line to chair the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee.

The WalletHub study didn’t include just welfare payments but also included federal contracts and federal employees’ salaries.  With the benefit of over a half-century of federal dollars and jobs pouring into the state, Mississippi still ranks near the bottom in several performance measures.

According to Politico and Cottonmouth, state Sen. Chris McDaniel has even identified Mississippi as a “welfare state.”  With endless campaign ads currently touting Cochran’s ability to bring federal funds to the state, Sen. Cochran tweeted this:

Wow.  Did Cochran just undermine his entire record?  Ever wonder why our country is $17 Trillion in debt?

For more information: